Insights 
VT 
Key Points:
- Apple closed at $207.75, rebounding from a low of $199.25 after a Jefferies upgrade.
- Analyst warns iPhone sales may stagnate in H2; tariffs could cut earnings by up to 7%.
Apple shares (AAPL) bounced sharply on Tuesday, closing at $207.75 after reaching a high of $210.15. The rally followed a Jefferies analyst’s decision to upgrade the stock from “underperform” to “hold.” Although not bullish, the shift in tone helped Apple outperform a broadly weaker tech sector.
Jefferies analyst Edison Lee, who has shifted stances multiple times this year, acknowledged that June-quarter results may be stronger than expected—thanks to Chinese promotions and U.S. consumers accelerating purchases ahead of expected tariff hikes. However, Lee remains cautious on the outlook, stating Wall Street is “overly optimistic” about the tariff impact.
Tariffs and Product Worries May Cap Upside
Despite Tuesday’s strength, Apple remains one of the weakest performers in the “Magnificent Seven.” Its stock is down roughly 17% year-to-date, outpacing only Tesla’s -25% decline.
Lee estimates that even a mild round of U.S. tariffs (10% on India, 20% on Vietnam, 30% on China) could cut Apple’s EPS by 7% over two fiscal years—before accounting for potential chip-sector tariffs.
On the innovation front, Lee notes that the upcoming iPhone 17 launch may lack compelling features, while AI integration still lags rivals. “AI is not yet a game changer,” he wrote, casting doubt on sustained upside from consumer upgrades.
Technical Analysis
Apple (AAPL) surged sharply from $199.25 to a session high of $210.15, marking a near +5% gain in less than 24 hours. The rally appears to have been triggered by renewed bullish sentiment, with earnings optimism and recent AI-related headlines fuelling the push. Price has since entered a tight consolidation range between $207.50 and $208.00, suggesting a pause as traders assess whether there’s fuel for a follow-through.
Picture: AAPL surge pauses near resistance, cooling off at the $210 mark, as seen on the VT Markets app
Moving averages (5, 10, 30) are still in bullish alignment, with the short-term MA hugging price support. MACD momentum is softening after an explosive bullish crossover, with histogram bars fading—indicating the uptrend is losing steam, at least short term. Should price break below $206.80, a retracement toward $204 or even $202.50 is possible. Bulls will want to see a decisive push above $210.15 to confirm continuation.
Earnings momentum could keep AAPL range-bound in the short term. However, weak September guidance or lacklustre iPhone interest could see the stock drift back below $200, especially if macro headwinds re-emerge.
