Monthly Market Insights: June

June brought another volatile month for global markets, with geopolitical events taking centre stage. The 12-day war between Israel and Iran, alongside growing speculation around tariffs and regulatory shifts, forced traders and investors to balance caution with optimism—particularly as encouraging economic data emerged from China.

Oil prices spiked to $75 per barrel when Israel launched an attack on Iran on 13 June. Fears of escalation into a broader regional war and threats to close the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns about a potential disruption to global oil supply. This posed a serious risk to global inflation at a time when central banks are already navigating the difficult trade-off between persistent inflation and slowing growth.

The conflict triggered a brief sell-off in equities and crypto assets, as investors rotated out of riskier positions and into traditional safe havens. However, a ceasefire helped alleviate fears of prolonged energy supply shocks or broader conflict. Oil prices have since retreated below $65 per barrel, with weak demand fundamentals and ongoing OPEC+ tensions keeping prices under pressure. Equities have since rallied, with both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ reaching fresh all-time highs.

Interestingly, gold’s price movement closely mirrored Bitcoin at times, reinforcing their shared role as alternative stores of value, particularly during periods of elevated sovereign and geopolitical risk.

The Federal Reserve struck a cautious tone at its June meeting, citing concerns over both inflation and slowing growth. However, the meeting occurred amid the Middle East conflict, which has since eased, helping to reduce some of the associated risks. Meanwhile, improved data from China injected a degree of cautious optimism into market sentiment.

Markets remain acutely sensitive to the geopolitical landscape. With the Trump administration’s renewed focus on tariffs and the looming 9 July deadline for trade agreements, volatility may persist through the typically thinner-volume summer months.

Traders and investors should closely monitor Federal Reserve policy decisions and ongoing tariff negotiations, as these will shape market direction going into July 2025.

Forex

The US dollar continued to weaken through June, as softer-than-expected inflation data and the resolution of the Israel-Iran conflict boosted hopes for additional rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later this year.

While the Fed did maintain a cautious stance—highlighted during its June meeting—this occurred at the height of geopolitical tension in the Middle East, when concerns over oil price spikes were at their peak.

Traditional safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen (JPY) and Swiss franc (CHF) initially held firm, but later eased as tensions cooled.

Concerns still linger regarding the inflationary impact of further tariff escalations—particularly if US trade tensions with China or the EU intensify. Focus will likely shift back to these geopolitical and economic flashpoints in July, which could prompt more defensive positioning across major currency pairs.

Fig. 1: Weekly DXY chart showing further weakness in June, trading below the 99.50–101.00 range.

Gold and Silver

Gold remained rangebound in June, reflecting the tug-of-war between easing geopolitical risk and broader macroeconomic uncertainty.

After an initial rally during the outbreak of the Israel-Iran conflict—driven by its safe-haven status—gold prices retreated from their peak of $3,451 per ounce once a ceasefire was reached and risk appetite returned.

Gold’s role as a hedge against inflationary shocks remains key. Any renewed escalation in tariffs could drive gold prices higher once again, as investors seek refuge in defensive assets.

Silver, on the other hand, surged in June following positive retail and industrial output data from China. China’s targeted stimulus efforts have fostered cautious optimism around demand for silver across key sectors including solar energy, electric vehicles (EVs), and electronics.

In July, traders should monitor tariff headlines closely, especially any retaliatory measures from China and the EU. Key drivers for gold and silver will include PMI and industrial data from China, the US, and the EU, as well as inflation prints and Federal Reserve commentary.

Fig. 2: Monthly silver chart showing a breakout to levels not seen since 2012.

Oil

Oil was one of the most volatile instruments in June, as the Israel-Iran war raised fears of global supply disruption.

Traders feared that rising oil prices and potential conflict escalation—particularly a closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran—could trigger a renewed wave of inflation across the global economy.

However, the eventual ceasefire brought swift relief, with prices falling back below the crucial $65 per barrel mark. This pullback was also influenced by fundamental pressures, including OPEC+’s decision to raise production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in August.

Fig. 3: Daily oil chart showing sharp spikes up to $75–$78 before settling near $65 following the ceasefire.

Indices

US stock indices have continued to display remarkable resilience despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, slowing GDP growth, and inflationary concerns.

Following a minor dip after the Israel-Iran conflict began, both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ rebounded strongly, reaching new all-time highs and recovering fully from the earlier sell-off triggered by Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.

With earnings season approaching, investors will closely watch for company-level impacts of recent trade policy shifts. Key sectors may reveal early signs of stress—or benefit—from the changing macro environment.

Looking ahead, core market drivers remain CPI data, consumer spending trends, FOMC decisions, and labour market strength.

Fig. 4: Daily NASDAQ chart showing a breakout to new all-time highs.

Crypto

Crypto assets experienced high volatility in June, initially dropping as geopolitical tensions flared. Bitcoin briefly fell below $106,000, while Ethereum lost a key support level after Israel’s airstrike on Iran.

However, sentiment rebounded strongly following the ceasefire. Bitcoin quickly rallied above $106,000, while Ethereum climbed 9% to $2,420. Solana also saw gains, boosted by growing speculation around potential ETF approvals that could further legitimise crypto within traditional finance.

Fig. 5: Daily Bitcoin chart highlighting its sharp swings during the Middle East conflict and ongoing trade policy developments.