Insights 
VT 
Key Points:
- Gold falls 0.8% to $3,309.09 as the U.S. dollar index gains 0.4%
- Trump confirms tariffs will rise from August 1 unless deals are reached by July 9
Gold prices dropped to $3,309.09 per ounce on Monday, their lowest level in nearly a week, as a stronger U.S. dollar dimmed the metal’s appeal. U.S. gold futures slipped by 0.7% to $3,319, while the dollar index rose 0.4%, making dollar-priced commodities more expensive for non-U.S. buyers.
The decline reflects renewed confidence in the U.S. economy after stronger-than-expected June jobs data, which has curbed expectations of immediate rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The strength of the greenback and uncertainty over trade policy have combined to pressure gold back below recent highs near $3,355.96.
Traders Watch for Fed Guidance
Gold’s pullback comes ahead of this week’s release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which could offer deeper insight into the central bank’s stance on rate cuts.
While markets still expect easing later this year, the solid jobs report last week has raised the bar for near-term action. Fed officials are walking a fine line between maintaining flexibility and preventing inflation from rebounding due to tariff-driven price pressures.
Trump’s Tariff Ultimatum Adds Trade Risk Premium
Gold remains a safe haven asset, but the current trade narrative is murky. President Donald Trump reiterated on Sunday that countries without a trade deal in place by July 9 will face increased tariff rates—as high as 50% for some categories—starting August 1.
Trump had earlier announced a 10% base tariff, with “reciprocal” tariffs on nations seen as exploiting U.S. markets. He also threatened an additional 10% tariff on nations supporting BRICS’ “anti-American policies.”
Though no major supply disruptions have emerged yet, the uncertain backdrop has muted broader commodity sentiment, contributing to gold’s retreat.
Technical Analysis
Gold has pulled back after setting a high of ~$3,366, now finding short‑term footing between the 5-, 10-, and 30‑period moving averages around the $3,310–$3,330 zone. The MACD histogram has flattened near zero, suggesting that the recent decline may be pausing rather than reversing.
Picture: Gold consolidates near short‑term highs ahead of tariff deadline, as seen on the VT Markets app
Technically, a firm break above the $3,340–$3,350 band—where prior Fair Value Gaps and broken MAs reside—could signal a bullish resumption toward $3,360–$3,400, and potentially even the mid‑$3,400s. On the downside, support lies at the recent lows near $3,311, with further cushion down to $3,300; a decisive drop below this could open the door to a pullback toward $3,280–$3,300.
Gold Faces Dual Forces
Gold remains caught between opposing forces: a firm dollar and rate-cut delays on one side, and rising trade tensions on the other.
While the long-term case for gold is supported by structural risks—including inflationary pressures and global de-dollarisation—short-term flows may continue to favour the greenback until the Fed’s next move becomes clearer.
With Trump’s July 9 deadline fast approaching, geopolitical headlines could spark sharp movements in either direction. For now, traders may remain cautious and defensive in positioning around gold.
