Insights 
VT 
Key Points:
- AUD/USD dipped 0.2% to 0.6571, down from an eight-month peak of 0.6590.
- Traders now price in an RBA rate cut on 8 July, with ANZ forecasting back-to-back cuts in July and August.
The Australian dollar slipped to 0.6571 on Thursday, pulling back from its recent eight-month high of 0.6590 as traders shifted into risk-off mode ahead of Friday’s pivotal U.S. non-farm payrolls report.
Markets were rattled after a weaker-than-expected U.S. private jobs report hinted at labour market softness. A further downside surprise in the payrolls data could strengthen the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July, which would weaken the dollar and support the Aussie. But a stronger print could do the opposite—boosting the greenback and pushing AUD/USD lower.
Weak Domestic Data Cements RBA Cut Expectations
Australia’s trade surplus shrank to a near five-year low in May, driven by a slump in commodity exports and a rise in capital goods imports. The disappointing release followed Wednesday’s soft retail sales figures, which pointed to subdued household spending and weakened domestic demand.
These back-to-back data misses have solidified expectations for an RBA rate cut at next week’s 8 July policy meeting. ANZ joined other major Australian banks in forecasting a 25-bps cut, revising its outlook also to include a follow-up easing in August. Markets now price in nearly four more rate cuts by early 2026, with the cash rate potentially falling to 2.85% from the current 3.85%.
With fundamentals softening and dovish policy on the horizon, upside potential in AUD/USD remains capped unless U.S. data materially disappoints. AUD bears will eye 0.6540–0.6500 as a near-term zone to watch.
Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is exhibiting a choppy short-term structure, with intraday support forming at 0.65433 and resistance capping near 0.65880. After rebounding strongly from the session low, the pair climbed above the 30-period moving average and peaked around 0.65879. However, recent candles suggest a pullback is underway, with prices now trading below short-term moving averages (5, 10), and MACD turning bearish once again.
Picture: Aussie stalls below 0.6590 as bulls fade, as seen on the VT Markets app
Momentum is fading after the earlier bullish burst, and the MACD histogram has slipped back into negative territory, indicating a potential return to the lower consolidation range. Key support to watch remains at 0.65430, and if broken, could invite a drop toward 0.65200. On the upside, bulls must reclaim 0.65880 for any continuation toward the 0.6600 handle.
