Insights 
VT 
Key points:
- Brent crude trades steady near $69 after a weekly drop of 1.5%
- EU sanctions on Russian oil raise geopolitical risk
- US threatens tariffs on EU imports from August 1
- MACD on oil chart signals bearish pressure, but momentum could shift
Brent crude oil futures hovered near $69 per barrel on Monday, struggling to regain ground after a 1.5% weekly decline. Despite a volatile geopolitical backdrop, prices stayed rangebound as traders weighed growing tensions against signs of restraint in U.S. production.
A cocktail of risk factors stirred the market: the EU’s latest sanctions on Russia (its 18th package) introduced a lower price cap on Russian crude, bans on refined fuels, and restrictions targeting a major Indian refinery.
At the same time, US-EU trade talks are approaching a breaking point, with potential U.S. tariffs on EU goods set to kick in on August 1. China, caught in the crossfire, has pushed back on sanctions targeting its firms and financial institutions, deepening the divide between East and West.
Supply Headwinds Meet Demand Doubts
Even as diplomatic pressure mounts, rising output from Middle Eastern producers has cast a shadow over prices. Traders remain cautious, aware that supply resilience and tariff-induced demand slowdowns could limit upside potential.
Meanwhile, Iran is scheduled to resume nuclear talks with EU nations on Friday, a move that could shake up forward-looking supply expectations if sanctions are revived or intensified.
In the U.S., Baker Hughes reported oil rigs fell to 422, the lowest count since September 2021. This dip highlights a degree of restraint in domestic drilling. While this could eventually tighten supply, markets remain locked in the now: watching, waiting, and reacting to the next policy shift or trade escalation.
Technical Analysis
Oil remains on the back foot after failing to sustain gains above the 67.50 region last week. The chart shows a sharp drop post-peak, followed by sideways consolidation below the 30-MA, suggesting traders are cautious.
The MACD histogram has shifted back toward neutral after several sessions in negative territory, hinting at potential exhaustion in selling—though no clear reversal signal has emerged yet.
Picture: Crude stuck in limbo after last week’s fall. Weak demand and supply jitters keep bulls at bay, as seen on the VT Markets app
Global friction around the Red Sea and renewed tension in the Middle East haven’t yet translated into bullish oil momentum. Meanwhile, a surprise build in US crude stockpiles and slower Chinese demand continue to weigh on sentiment. Watch the 65.58 support closely—if broken, it could expose the market to a sharper correction toward 65.00.
Looking Ahead
From the Iran-EU nuclear talks to the looming August tariffs, crude oil remains at the mercy of headlines. Until a clear directional catalyst emerges, traders are likely to stay reactive rather than proactive.
Whether oil bulls can regain their footing or not will depend on whether risk appetite returns—or if global demand fears drown out geopolitical risk premiums.
