Insights 
VT 
Key Points:
- WTI shows short-term bullish momentum, but faces key resistance at $67.733 and a more substantial test at $68.000.
- Supply increase is countered by geopolitical risk from potential US sanctions on Russian oil exports.
- A break above $67.733 signals more upside, while a drop below support at $66.628 suggests a reversal.
WTI crude futures rise as traders weigh an OPEC+ output hike against potential Russian sanctions and expected Fed rate cuts.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures advanced toward $67.50 a barrel on Monday. Traders pushed prices higher after initially selling on news from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+).
OPEC+ announced it will increase its collective production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September. The group aims to reclaim market share it lost over the past year.
A cautious forecast suggests this planned increase in supply could limit price gains, creating resistance as WTI approaches the $70 per barrel level.
Active Pressure from the US
The United States is actively pressuring India to stop buying Russian oil. This diplomatic push aligns with President Donald Trump’s stated goal of securing a peace deal for Ukraine by August 8.
US officials have explicitly warned Indian counterparts of punitive measures. President Trump has threatened to impose 100% secondary sanctions on any entity purchasing Russian crude.
Such an action would directly threaten up to 2.75 million barrels per day of Russian oil exports, primarily destined for China and India. If Washington follows through, we cautiously forecast a rapid price spike as the market scrambles to replace these barrels.
Prices also found support from economic data in the United States. A weaker-than-expected US jobs report for July has strengthened traders’ expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Lower interest rates can stimulate economic activity, which typically increases demand for oil.
Continued expectations of monetary easing will likely establish a firm price floor, protecting the market from a deep downturn.
Technical Analysis
The short-term technical picture for WTI crude is cautiously bullish following a sharp downturn and subsequent recovery. The price established a recent low at $66.628 and has since mounted a recovery, suggesting buyer interest at that level.
Oil price has experienced a severe drop from above the $69.000 handle around August 2nd, finding firm support at $66.628. The current price of $67.447 is part of a recovery phase, likely in reaction to OPEC+’s indication of increasing supply.
Traders should watch for a decisive breakout above the immediate resistance at $67.733. A successful move higher, ideally with increasing volume, would open the door to testing the $68.000 level. Continued strength in the MACD indicator would support this view.
