Insights 
VT 
Ethereum isn’t waiting for a bull market to start winning. While Bitcoin still dominates headlines and price action chatter, the real shift is happening behind the scenes. Over in Washington, three major U.S. crypto bills are making their way through Congress. They’re technical, they’re dense—and they could completely reshape how Ethereum fits into the financial system.
The GENIUS Act, the CLARITY Act, and the Anti-CBDC Act may not sound flashy, but their combined effect could push Ethereum to the centre of the next era in regulated crypto. And here’s the kicker: Ethereum is positioned to benefit far more than any other blockchain, including Bitcoin.
The Genius Behind the GENIUS Act
Let’s start with the GENIUS Act. This bill aims to clean up stablecoins—requiring full reserve backing, strict audits, and better protections for users. That might sound like a compliance headache, but for Ethereum, it’s a huge green light.
Most major stablecoins like USDC, USDT, and PYUSD are native to Ethereum’s ERC-20 standard. They rely on Ethereum’s infrastructure for minting, settlement, and movement. With clearer rules, institutions can finally jump in without worrying about legal minefields. And when they do, they’ll be using Ethereum rails.
Bitcoin, for all its strengths, simply doesn’t have the smart contract capability to handle stablecoin operations at scale.
Next comes the CLARITY Act, which is arguably the biggest win of the three. This bill finally puts ETH in the commodity category—under the CFTC, not the SEC. That’s a big deal. Up until now, Ethereum’s legal status has been murky, especially after the move to proof-of-stake.
ETH Escapes the SEC’s Shadow
The SEC kept suggesting ETH could be a security, which made some traders nervous. This new law wipes that worry off the board. Institutions now have the green light to enter without fearing an SEC crackdown. For comparison, Bitcoin never had that problem—it’s always been treated as a commodity.
So while this bill reinforces Bitcoin’s position, it rescues Ethereum from regulatory limbo.
The third bill, the Anti-CBDC Act, might seem like it has nothing to do with Ethereum. But it does. This bill effectively blocks the Fed from launching its own digital dollar. That keeps the door open for private stablecoins to remain the go-to choice for digital USD transactions.
Again, Ethereum wins. It’s where most of those stablecoins live and operate. With no government-run alternative on the horizon, Ethereum’s role as the main highway for dollar-backed tokens gets even stronger.
What about Solana, Tron, or Binance Smart Chain? Don’t they also support stablecoins? They do. But Ethereum still holds the deepest liquidity, the most battle-tested infrastructure, and the largest DeFi ecosystem.
Even when stablecoins bridge out to other networks, their base layer and deepest pools tend to stay on Ethereum. Institutions also tend to trust Ethereum more—it’s seen as decentralised, mature, and secure. In a regulated environment, that matters a lot more than just being fast or cheap.
Ethereum Holds the Ground Floor
The market has already started to price some of this in. ETH has been outperforming BTC in several recent sessions, a trend that might continue as the bills gain momentum. But this doesn’t mean Ethereum is on an easy path forward.
Regulatory wins don’t automatically translate into price gains. Traders will want to see real adoption—stablecoin volumes, institutional products, maybe even new DeFi primitives.
And of course, these bills aren’t laws yet. Delays, amendments, or political curveballs could still get in the way.
Still, the structure is taking shape. If these bills pass, Ethereum won’t just be a decentralised smart contract platform—it’ll be the backbone of regulated digital finance in the U.S. It will process tokenised dollars, anchor staking products, and power enterprise-grade DeFi.
That’s a very different narrative from the old ETH-vs-BTC rivalry. Bitcoin might still be king of store-of-value. But Ethereum? It’s starting to look like the infrastructure layer for everything else.
Cautiously speaking, this puts Ethereum in a prime spot for medium-term accumulation. Traders watching ETH’s correlation to macro factors should keep an eye on stablecoin flows, CFTC statements, and DeFi TVL growth. If the regulatory doors open wide enough, the capital will follow—and Ethereum will be ready to catch it.
Key Movements of the Week
The markets pulsed this week. Each asset moved with intent, testing levels we’ve been eyeing for weeks, only to hesitate, reject, or grind sideways into consolidation. For short-term traders and swing strategists alike, the charts are whispering clues, if you know where to look.
USDX has been grinding higher, inching upward from its 98.50 retracement zone. Price action at 98.75 remains in play, with 99.85 and even 100.15 lining up as next targets if momentum carries through. The dollar’s strength is leaning more structural now, supported by fading eurozone PMI optimism and a U.S. economy that continues to resist slowdown. That said, upside isn’t guaranteed. Any miss in next week’s advance GDP or Core PCE could stall this climb, so traders should monitor rejection patterns at 99.85. Until then, the bias remains mildly bullish.
EURUSD mirrored that story but in reverse. The pair softened into the week, slipping closer to 1.1480—our next major zone for potential bullish price action. With forecasted PMIs showing only marginal improvement, euro strength looks fragile. If price consolidates around 1.1480, it may hint at an incoming bounce. However, if USD strength accelerates further into next week’s macro prints, we could see a clean break lower, possibly opening space toward the 1.14 region.
GBPUSD followed a similar path, breaking through the 1.33645 swing low before entering a slow crawl downward. All eyes now turn to 1.3315. If we see consolidation here, another leg down seems likely, with 1.3215 marking the next critical level. Traders should watch for bullish engulfing patterns or morning stars at either zone. Still, with Bailey scheduled to speak midweek and no major UK data, sterling could drift in reactive mode—following dollar strength or fading euro sentiment.
Over in USDJPY, price edged toward the monitored 149.20 level—and it’s looking shaky. If this area gives way, bulls may target 149.95 next. Japan’s upcoming monetary policy statement will be key here. A dovish tone from the BoJ could push the pair higher, while any policy surprise or hint of tightening could trigger a sharp reversal. Price remains heavy but watchful.
USDCHF pulled back from 0.8050, yet it hasn’t ruled out another push upward. If bulls re-enter, the 0.8115 zone is the next checkpoint. Still, the pair feels like it’s waiting for broader USD direction. If USDX breaks 99.85, we’ll likely see CHF give way.
AUDUSD and NZDUSD both slipped from their monitored zones—0.6520 and 0.5985 respectively. For AUD, 0.6485 is the next key level to test. Should we see consolidation there, a deeper move lower could unfold. Likewise, NZDUSD is approaching 0.5930. These levels matter—both currencies remain vulnerable to dollar strength and soft commodities, so risk-off sentiment or poor China data could drag them further.
USDCAD moved higher from 1.3715. If this rally continues, 1.3810 and 1.3840 are the next resistance levels to monitor for bearish setups. With CAD tethered to oil’s volatility, it’s worth watching crude as a cross-reference. A strong oil bounce could cap this pair, but weakness in energy might lift it further.
Speaking of oil—USOil pulled back, with 63.35 and 61.00 acting as the next key demand zones. If price stabilises there, bulls may step back in. But current sentiment feels tentative. Without a geopolitical spark or inventory draw, oil may drift or consolidate through the zones, rather than spike sharply.
Gold flirted with the 3340 area but looks like it still has fuel in the tank. The bias is cautiously bullish as it heads toward 3380 and 3410—where sellers may reappear. Traders should monitor for exhaustion candles at those levels. Momentum remains uncertain, and the yellow metal continues to mirror real rates and dollar moves.
The SP500 made a fresh high, pushing ever closer to 6400. If this bullishness holds, 6630 becomes the next upside magnet. But with earnings season rolling in and the Fed event looming, risk-on sentiment may cool. Expect traders to lean more defensive above 6400 unless we see breakout volume.
Bitcoin couldn’t hold above the 120,350 mark—failing to close strong. The pullback brings 113,345 and 111,000 into focus for potential bullish setups. If those levels show strength, short-term buyers may look for re-entry. However, ETH’s recent rejection at 6,773 and signs of outperformance are beginning to shift attention across the majors.
Natural gas continues to hold traders’ interest. If it consolidates near 3.26, bulls may eye a run at the 3.615 high. Seasonality and weather volatility remain key catalysts, so traders should stay nimble. A clean breakout above 3.615 would change the structure entirely—but only if volume confirms it.
Key Events of the Week
On Tuesday, 22 July, the only voice on the radar is Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. With sterling slipping toward 1.3315 and downside pressure building, traders will be listening closely for rate-related clues. The market has priced in a hold for now—but any dovish shift in tone could leave GBPUSD exposed.
Thursday, 24 July, brings the real weight. The day kicks off with RBA Governor Michele Bullock, who is expected to speak just as AUDUSD drifts lower from 0.6520. There’s no official rate decision, but traders will be parsing every word for guidance. A more cautious outlook could fuel a dip toward 0.6485, while hawkish hints might offer the Aussie a short-term bounce.
Shortly after, Germany’s flash manufacturing and services PMIs take the stage. The manufacturing index is forecast at 49.4, just above the previous 49.0, while services are seen at 50.0, slightly up from 49.7. These numbers hover close to contraction territory, so even minor surprises could shift EUR sentiment. Weakness here may fuel EURUSD’s drift toward 1.1480.
The UK’s own PMI data follows closely. Manufacturing is expected at 48.1, up from 47.7, and services at 52.9, a tick above the previous 52.8. This leaves sterling in a tight spot. A miss—especially on the services side—could push GBPUSD through 1.3315 and test support at 1.3215. Traders should be watching for bullish patterns at those levels if consolidation appears.
The ECB’s main refinancing rate decision lands later in the day. No surprises are expected here—the rate is forecast to hold steady at 2.15%, unchanged from last month. But the press conference that follows could offer the bigger takeaway. Markets are anticipating one final rate cut in September to wrap up the easing cycle. Any comment that supports—or challenges—that outlook could inject some movement into EUR crosses.
Finally, U.S. flash PMIs round out the session. Manufacturing is projected to dip slightly to 52.7 from 52.9, while services are expected to rise to 53.0 from 52.9. The data won’t change Fed policy on its own, but with the FOMC press conference and Core PCE around the corner next week, it could shift sentiment. If the numbers beat expectations, it may help the dollar extend gains, particularly if USDX breaks out above the 99.85 level.
Looking ahead, next week could bring heavier macro winds: U.S. Advance GDP (30 July), CAD Overnight Rate, FOMC Press Conference, Core PCE Price Index, Japan’s Monetary Policy Statement, and U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change (1 August). For now, though, all eyes are on Thursday—a day dense with data, tone shifts, and short-term trading opportunity.
